• A black swan is an extremely rare event with dire consequences.

  • It is impossible to predict in advance, although after the fact many people mistakenly claim that it should have been predictable.
  • Black swan events can cause catastrophic damage to the economy, negatively affecting markets and investment, but even the use of reliable modeling cannot prevent a black swan event.
  • Relying on standard forecasting tools can not only fail to predict, but potentially increase vulnerability to black swans, spreading risk and offering false security. – The term was popularized thanks to Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book The Black Swan.