• Player fallacy refers to the mistaken thinking that a certain event is more or less likely given the previous series of events.

  • It is also called the Monte Carlo delusion, after the casino in Las Vegas where it was observed in 1913.
  • The erroneous way of thinking of the player is incorrect, because each event should be considered independent, and its results are not related to past or present events.
  • Investors often make the gambler’s mistake when they believe that a stock will lose or rise in price after a series of trading sessions with exactly the opposite movement.