• Hindsight bias is a psychological phenomenon in which a person becomes convinced that he accurately predicted an event before it happened.

  • It causes over-confidence in one’s ability to predict other future events and may lead to unnecessary risks.
  • Hindsight bias can adversely affect decision making.
  • In investing, hindsight bias can manifest as feelings of disappointment or regret that you didn’t take action prior to an event that would change the market.
  • One way to manage hindsight bias is to document the decision-making process with a journal (such as an investment diary).